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Stefan Simeonov, Teodor Todorov, Daniel Nikolaev
Determinants of Stock Exchange Activity in the Conditions of the Bulgarian Fund Market
Summary:
Popular scientific and practical researches on stock exchanges usually consider price indicators, especially stock indices, which essentially reflect economic expectations. Unlike those, the present study focuses on stock market activity, measured by the direct stock exchange indicators – stock exchange volume and stock exchange turnover. We have selected seventeen determinants of stock exchange activity, which are initially subject to correlation analysis together with the two indicators. Relatively weak dependencies on macro factors have been found as for the natural indicator (the stock exchange volume) and slightly stronger dependencies of the price indicator (the stock exchange turnover) have been established. The subsequent causality analysis, based on the Granger model, sheds light on some of the more significant determinants of stock exchange volume and turnover at the Bulgarian Stock Exchange. In the monthly surveys, the stock exchange volume factors are inflation in Bulgaria, silver and platinum price changes and, regarding stock exchange turnover, Leonia + interest rates and quotes in addition. In the quarterly observations, the amount of household deposits appears with impact that is more significant.
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V.i. Lyashenko, Y.i. Tulku
Quasi-Tangible Assets of Modern Neo-Industrialism
Summary:
In this article the authors insist on imperfection of existent financial instruments, which caused the financial-economic crisis and suppose that there is another possibility for companies to get extra financial resources. One of those possibilities is using a new format of assets for companies’ capitalization. The financial mechanism of their trading is also suggested.
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Nikolay Nenovsky, Giovani Pavanelli, Kalina Dimitrova
Exchange Rate Control in Italy and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period. History and Perspectives
Summary:
The history of the exchange control in Europe in the interwar period provides us with interesting insights of the current development of the European monetary union and of the perspectives of its enlargement, where the exchange rate and monetary regime have a central role. Like in the past, in a different historical context and in different forms of course, Europe today could be also divided into centre, semi-periphery and periphery or, in other words, groups of countries at different stages of economic development. Therefore, we find it challenging to compare the evolution of exchange control (an exchange rate regime) in two countries which were of course characterized by different economic conditions - Italy being a representative of the semi-periphery and Bulgaria of the peripheral and, at that time, underdeveloped Balkans − but which, as a matter of fact, were both external to the financial and industrial core of Europe.
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Vladimir Sirkarov
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency as Money – a Monetary Analysis by Using the Ludwig von Mises Regression Theorem
Summary:
Money came into existence on the basis of market relations in the absence of state intervention. The first means of exchange date back earlier than the development of clearly-established structures of public administration. The need for money was generated during an early form of trade, the barter. In general, the actual functions of money cover three general categories: a medium of exchange, a store of value and a unit of account. Money should be a universal force. This does not mean that money can be used by everyone; it requires wide application and sustainability. Ludwig von Mises' regression theorem is a praxeological analysis of the marginal utility of money. It analyzes reaching a historical moment when a commodity becomes a medium of exchange. The emergence of a new medium of exchange is based on an existing pricing mechanism. The subjective monetary value at the moment can be thus calculated. Bitcoin is a medium of exchange, but it still has no universal status. Cryptocurrency does not contradict the regression theorem and has the theoretical basis to turn into money. It depends on the preferences of economic agents whether this will happen or not.
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Hrabrin Bashev
To the Question of Economic Study of Agrarian Contracts
Summary:
Arround the globe, a huge number of theoretical and empirical studies and publications related to agrarian contracts of various types have been made. In Bulgaria, the studies of economic contracts in general, and of agrarian contracts in particular, are incidental, with individual researchers applying "their own" definitions and methodologies, which are often contradictory, non-comprehensive and highly debatable. The article attempts to answer several important academic and practical questions: what is an economic contract, what is the difference of the economic approach compared to other (legal, sociological, etc.) approaches to the study of contracts, what is the role of economic contracts in agrarian governance, why there is such a huge variety of contracts used by agents, etc. The achievements of the interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics are adapted and a holistic framework for the economic understanding and analysis of agrarian contracts and contractual relations in agriculture is presented. The system of agrarian contracts is seen as a complex, networked and multi-layered system, involving a variety of agrarian and non-agrarian Agents, who govern their relations and activities through various contractual Means (types of contracts), participating in the agrarian contractual Process, as a result of which in each particular time period in a given country, region, sub-sector, type of farming, agro-ecosystem, etc. dominates a certain contractual and governance Order. Like the economic analysis of the system of agrarian governance, the holistic analysis of the system of economic contracts is to apply an A-M-P-O approach, which includes an analysis of all its elements - Agents, Means, Process, and Order. The article offers an adequate economic definition of agrarian contracts and characterization of their place in the system of agrarian governance as bilateral or multilateral agreements related to agricultural production and services. After that, an economic characterization of the agents participating in the contractual relations is made, paying particular attention to their bounded rationality and tendency to opportunism. These two characteristics related to "human nature" are the reason for the existence of transaction costs and the need to choose an effective governing (contractual) form to increase the "rationality" of agents and protect against possible opportunism in their relationships.
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Asen Radev
Monetary Politics in the Conditions of Internationalization of Money, and the Adoption of the Electronic Money
Summary:
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Irena Nikolova
Specifics in the Definition of Currency Risk
Summary:
Risk management is one of the tools for diminishing the negative effect on the companies in the non financial sector in times of economic and financial crisis. The foreign exchange risk as a part of the whole risk in a company has a direct as well as indirect influence on its corporate activities. The factors that influence the foreign exchange risk, the different economic levels and the foreign exchange risk as well as the various exposures to the risk are presented in this paper.
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Stefan Simeonov, Teodor Todorov, Daniel Nikolaev
Development of Frequency Analysis of the Volatility in a Model to Forecast the Financial Markets Trend and Comparative Empirical Assessment with the Technical Analysis
Summary:
The present study aims to develop the concept of predictive applicability of the Frequency Analysis of the Volatility and Trend (FAVT) as well as practical testing of the modified model for forecasting stock exchange indexes with different characteristics. For greater objectivity in estimating the forecast outcomes, FAVT is placed in parallel with traditional statistical models and the most popular method in stock exchange traders - technical analysis. In the first part of the study we develop the methodology of the concept of predictive applicability of FAVT in its modified version with movable calculation (FAVT-MC) of the frequency coefficients. The methodology of the study includes investment analysis measures, traditional statistical forecasting models, quantitative indicators of technical analysis and a modified version of the FAVT-MC. The conclusions of the statistical analysis show low applicability of linear forecasting in determining changes in the trend, while the alternative approach – non-linear forecasting yields significantly better results but under conditions of high investment activity and large variation. The choice of technical analysis tools is deliberately placed on quantitative measures known as technical indicators and does not include Eliot's Wave Theory. The results found are of varying reliability for the over ten technical indicators applied.
Exploration of the forecasting significance of the FAVT with movable calculation for the main (long-term) trends on stock exchange indexes achieved results with a reliable signal value for the end of the large growth before the general stock market collapse at the end of 2007. Clearly unambiguous results for all the periods surveyed in the performance of the different stock indices regarding the change of their major trends after the 2008 crisis were not established. A more significant importance of the modified frequency analysis, allowing the reading of forecast signals, is established for the short-term trends of the stock exchange indices.
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Ludwig Von Mises
Human Action. Part Four, Chapter XVII. Indirect Exchange && 1-11
Summary:
Interpersonal exchange is called indirect exchange if, between the commodities and services the reciprocal exchange of which is the ultimate end of exchanging, one or several media of exchange are interposed. The subject matter of the theory of indirect exchange is the study of the ratio of exchange between the media of exchange on the one hand and the goods and services of all orders on the other hand. The statements of the theory of indirect exchange refer to all instances of indirect exchange and to all things which are employed as media of exchange.
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Ludwig Von Mises
Human Action. Part Four, Chapter XVII. Indirect Exchange && 12-19
Summary:
People deal with money-substitutes as if they were money because they are fully confident that it will be possible to exchange them at any time without delay and without cost against money. We may call those who share in this confidence and are therefore ready to deal with moneysubstitutes as if they were money, the clients of the issuing banker, bank, or authority. It does not matter whether or not this issuing establishment is operated according to the patterns of conduct customary in the banking business. Token coins issued by a country's treasury are moneysubstitutes too, although the treasury as a rule does not enter the amount issued into its accounts as a liability and does not consider this amount a part of the national debt. It is no less immaterial whether or not the owner of a money-substitute has an actionable claim to redemption. What counts is whether the money-substitute can really be exchanged against money without delay and cost.
