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  Development of Frequency Analysis of the Volatility in a Model to Forecast the Financial Markets Trend and Comparative Empirical Assessment with the Technical Analysis

  The present study aims to develop the concept of predictive applicability of the Frequency Analysis of the Volatility and Trend (FAVT) as well as practical testing of the modified model for forecasting stock exchange indexes with different characteristics. For greater objectivity in estimating the forecast outcomes, FAVT is placed in parallel with ... The present study aims to develop the concept of predictive applicability of the Frequency Analysis of the Volatility and Trend (FAVT) as well as practical testing of the modified model for forecasting stock exchange indexes with different characteristics. For greater objectivity in estimating the forecast outcomes, FAVT is placed in parallel with traditional statistical models and the most popular method in stock exchange traders - technical analysis. In the first part of the study we develop the methodology of the concept of predictive applicability of FAVT in its modified version with movable calculation (FAVT-MC) of the frequency coefficients. The methodology of the study includes investment analysis measures, traditional statistical forecasting models, quantitative indicators of technical analysis and a modified version of the FAVT-MC. The conclusions of the statistical analysis show low applicability of linear forecasting in determining changes in the trend, while the alternative approach – non-linear forecasting yields significantly better results but under conditions of high investment activity and large variation. The choice of technical analysis tools is deliberately placed on quantitative measures known as technical indicators and does not include Eliot's Wave Theory. The results found are of varying reliability for the over ten technical indicators applied. Exploration of the forecasting significance of the FAVT with movable calculation for the main (long-term) trends on stock exchange indexes achieved results with a reliable signal value for the end of the large growth before the general stock market collapse at the end of 2007. Clearly unambiguous results for all the periods surveyed in the performance of the different stock indices regarding the change of their major trends after the 2008 crisis were not established. A more significant importance of the modified frequency analysis, allowing the reading of forecast signals, is established for the short-term trends of the stock exchange indices.

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  Analysis and Assessment of the Policy Towards Foreign Direct Investment in Bulgaria in the Period 1990-2018

  Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been regarded as an important driver of economic development in Bulgaria since the very start of market transition, which determined the establishment of a liberal foreign investment regime. However, the impressively large FDI stock, which was accumulated during the period of growth before the global crisis, has ... Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been regarded as an important driver of economic development in Bulgaria since the very start of market transition, which determined the establishment of a liberal foreign investment regime. However, the impressively large FDI stock, which was accumulated during the period of growth before the global crisis, has quite unfavorable sectoral and regional structure. In combination with the substantial drop of FDI after the crisis and its very low levels in the following years, this suggests that there are certain weaknesses of the policy towards FDI. Given the importance of the topic, the paper tries to analyze and assess FDI policy in Bulgaria. For this purpose, first we discuss some key features of inward FDI, then we outline the changes in the legislation in this field and in the end, some critical arguments and recommendations are given.

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  Investment Appeal of Residential Real Estate Property in the City of Sofia

  The current study is focused on the residential real estate property market in the city of Sofia. It examines different options for assessment of investment return on three of the most widespread types of residential housing property – studios, one-bedroom and two-bedroom flats – by residential district in the city of Sofia. A comparative static ... The current study is focused on the residential real estate property market in the city of Sofia. It examines different options for assessment of investment return on three of the most widespread types of residential housing property – studios, one-bedroom and two-bedroom flats – by residential district in the city of Sofia. A comparative static analysis has been performed according to housing location as well as a dynamic analysis in relation to a past period. For the groups of the most appealing locations, graphs have been plotted of investment return dynamics per month, for a one-year period, which reveal the seasonal character of the changes in the indicator examined. The most recent mass data are used, meeting the requirements for calculating reliable unifying characteristics. Major priorities and objective laws have been worked out, benefiting both theory and practice.