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Plamen Pytev, Elena Marinova
The Link Between Credit Default Swaps and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe
Summary:
Our study aims at testing whether there is long-run relationship between the CDS and stock markets in seven countries of Eastern Europe. First, we define specifics of the seven CEE stock markets and CDS spreads. We have found that they show different performance characteristics – stock markets present very different performance while the volatility has been very close. Next, we try to estimate the presence of co-integration among the stock markets on the one side and CDS spread on the other. The results show that both stock market indices and CDS spread are not stationary at levels but are stationary at first difference and they are first-order integrated I(1) for all countries. Next, we apply Granger causality test for short-run relationship and our results show for Russia and Poland that the index return is Granger causing the change in CDS spread, the variance in the CDS explained by the index is 40% and 31% respectively. In the case of Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, where the change in the CDS spread is Granger Causing change in stock market index, the variance in the index explained by the CDS spread is 36%, 11% and 27% respectively.
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Alexander Apostolov
Theoretical Foundations, Functioning, and Role of Financial Intermediation as a Factor for Economic Growth
Summary:
The study examines the theoretical relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth, focusing on the growing role of non-bank financial intermediation (NBFIs). In order to accomplish this, the main theoretical strands, thematically the most significant propositions, and empirical analyses of the interaction between the development of financial intermediation and economic growth, the structuring of the modern financial system, and the risks it faces, are critically reexamined. Efforts are focused on exploring the direction of the sector's implicit influence on economic growth and whether it can be reversed or is bidirectional. Does the combination of financial markets and investment intermediaries operating in an economy affect economic growth, and if so, in what ways? The study seeks to extend the dichotomous theoretical conceptualizations of financial structure as primarily banking while broadening the theoretical schema by incorporating the perspective of modern structuring, impact, and activities in the non-bank financial ecosystem.
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Ludwig Von Mises
Human Action, Part Four, Chapter XXIII. The Data of the Market
Summary:
Catallactics, the theory of the market economy, is not a system of theorems valid only under ideal and unrealizable conditions and applicable to reality merely with essential restrictions and modifications. All the theorems of catallactics are rigidly and without any exception valid for all phenomena of the market economy, provided the particular conditions which they presuppose are present. It is, for instance, a simple question of fact whether there is direct or indirect exchange. But where there is indirect exchange, all the general laws of the theory of indirect exchange are valid with regard to the acts of exchange and the media of exchange. As has been pointed out1, praxeological knowledge is precise or exact knowledge of reality. All references to the epistemological issues of the natural sciences and all analogies derived from comparing these two radically different realms of reality and cognition are misleading. There is, apart from formal logic, no such thing as a set of "methodological" rules applicable both to cognition by means of the category of causality and to that by means of the category of finality.