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Ivan Todorov, Alexander Alexandrov
Two Combined Approaches to Estimating Bulgaria’s Cyclical Position and Business Cycle Phase
Summary:
The cyclical position and the business cycle phase of Bulgaria have been estimated using two new approaches, which combine a production function and a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results obtained following the two approaches are similar and close to the estimates of national, European and international financial institutions. Recommendations have been made on macroeconomic policy, which is consistent with the cyclical position and the business cycle phase.
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Veniamin Todorov
Modelling Uncertainty During the COVID-19 Crisis
Summary:
The study analyses the levels and the dynamics of uncertainty as a fundamental element of the macroeconomic environment during the COVID-19 crisis. The focus is on the modelling of uncertainty on the basis of the market approach for quantifying it. The process of modelling results in the calculation of indicators through which a comparative empirical evaluation is done. In terms of the economies included, the comparative analysis encompasses the EU and the United States. The analysis is conducted on two levels that go side by side and complement each other. The first one consists of comparing the periods for the concrete economy. The results show similar trends for the EU and for the United States. For the three periods, defined in the study, the sequence of the changes does not differ for the two economies. The second level includes a comparative analysis of the same periods between the economies. The results exhibit a considerable similarity in the levels of uncertainty. For the first two periods the differences are not even statistically significant. For the third period, however, there is a greater difference which is characterized by statistical significance.
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Vladimir Sirkarov
Optimization of Monetary Aggregates from the Point of View of the Austrian Monetary Theory - Possibilities and Effects
Summary:
The money supply is calculated by different monetary aggregates with a certain structure and scope. The Federal Reserve calculates and publishes two units - M1 and M2. The correct measurement of money supply plays a fundamental role in the conduct of effective monetary policy by central banks. Unfortunately, official monetary aggregates do not have a clearly defined theoretical basis in the selection of individual components, which can lead to inaccuracies in their disclosure and management. This makes the current study relevant, through which an optimized monetary aggregate can be presented, based on the Austrian monetary theory. One of the most accurate monetary aggregates is based on the Rothbard-Salerno concept and is referred to in English-language financial theory as True Money Supply (TMS). The monetary instruments that are part of it cover two main criteria - whether they are the final means of payment of all transactions and whether they are a claim to cash that is convertible at face value.
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Irena Nikolova
Specifics in the Definition of Currency Risk
Summary:
Risk management is one of the tools for diminishing the negative effect on the companies in the non financial sector in times of economic and financial crisis. The foreign exchange risk as a part of the whole risk in a company has a direct as well as indirect influence on its corporate activities. The factors that influence the foreign exchange risk, the different economic levels and the foreign exchange risk as well as the various exposures to the risk are presented in this paper.
