Veniamin Todorov
Modelling Uncertainty During the COVID-19 Crisis
Summary:
The study analyses the levels and the dynamics of uncertainty as a fundamental element of the macroeconomic environment during the COVID-19 crisis. The focus is on the modelling of uncertainty on the basis of the market approach for quantifying it. The process of modelling results in the calculation of indicators through which a comparative empirical evaluation is done. In terms of the economies included, the comparative analysis encompasses the EU and the United States. The analysis is conducted on two levels that go side by side and complement each other. The first one consists of comparing the periods for the concrete economy. The results show similar trends for the EU and for the United States. For the three periods, defined in the study, the sequence of the changes does not differ for the two economies. The second level includes a comparative analysis of the same periods between the economies. The results exhibit a considerable similarity in the levels of uncertainty. For the first two periods the differences are not even statistically significant. For the third period, however, there is a greater difference which is characterized by statistical significance.
