Plamen Pytev, Elena Marinova
The Link Between Credit Default Swaps and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe
Summary:
Our study aims at testing whether there is long-run relationship between the CDS and stock markets in seven countries of Eastern Europe. First, we define specifics of the seven CEE stock markets and CDS spreads. We have found that they show different performance characteristics – stock markets present very different performance while the volatility has been very close. Next, we try to estimate the presence of co-integration among the stock markets on the one side and CDS spread on the other. The results show that both stock market indices and CDS spread are not stationary at levels but are stationary at first difference and they are first-order integrated I(1) for all countries. Next, we apply Granger causality test for short-run relationship and our results show for Russia and Poland that the index return is Granger causing the change in CDS spread, the variance in the CDS explained by the index is 40% and 31% respectively. In the case of Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, where the change in the CDS spread is Granger Causing change in stock market index, the variance in the index explained by the CDS spread is 36%, 11% and 27% respectively.
