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Victor Avramov
Time Series Analysis of Prices and Quantities at the Bulgarian Electricity Exchange in Conditions of Low Liquidity
Summary:
This article analyzes the time series of prices and quantities on the Bulgarian electricity exchange. The focus is on the period between January 2016 and June with the assumption that in this initial period for its operation, the stock exchange trade is not sufficiently liquid. Statistical tests and seasonal decomposition of quantities and prices are made. This allows the determination of their statistical properties. The analysis shows that both time series are characterized by mean reversion and have a weekly seasonality.
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Plamen Petkov
Econometric Estimation of Bulgarian Investment Function
Summary:
An investment function in economic terms is a concept or strategy that explains the relationships between shifts in the national income and changes in the investment patterns in the national economy. In this publication the methodology of vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to investigate long-run and short-run relationships between investments and some of their key determinants - real gross domestic product, inflation, discount interest rate and a composite index of financial development. Econometric analysis is based on annual data, which covered the period from 1991 to 2011. It is estimated there are three investment functions – of the total investment, private investment and foreign direct investment. Åach function is analyzed with and without structural shocks occurring in the study period.
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Veniamin Todorov
Modelling Uncertainty During the COVID-19 Crisis
Summary:
The study analyses the levels and the dynamics of uncertainty as a fundamental element of the macroeconomic environment during the COVID-19 crisis. The focus is on the modelling of uncertainty on the basis of the market approach for quantifying it. The process of modelling results in the calculation of indicators through which a comparative empirical evaluation is done. In terms of the economies included, the comparative analysis encompasses the EU and the United States. The analysis is conducted on two levels that go side by side and complement each other. The first one consists of comparing the periods for the concrete economy. The results show similar trends for the EU and for the United States. For the three periods, defined in the study, the sequence of the changes does not differ for the two economies. The second level includes a comparative analysis of the same periods between the economies. The results exhibit a considerable similarity in the levels of uncertainty. For the first two periods the differences are not even statistically significant. For the third period, however, there is a greater difference which is characterized by statistical significance.
